Project duration: 1/2007 – 1/2012

Team leader: Sandro Knezović, PhD (from 2011 to 2012)

Team leader: Mladen Staničić, PhD (from 2007 to 2011)

The goal of this project lies in the definition of costs that every country, as well as Croatia, must assume, and their comparison to the benefits that are expected from the participation in international security arrangements, whereby the image of general cost-effectiveness of Croatian participation within them would become apparent. The project particularly explores the perspective of relations between the development of the economy and security in South-East Europe. Through this area pass many of the corridors of new unconventional threats, such as terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, illegal trafficking in drugs and people, and other, from East to the West – that is towards the EU. Croatia, as well as other countries in the region, must control this traffic, and this can only be done if the country is institutionally and democratically stable. One of the preconditions of such stability is adequate economic development, and, in such a way, it is clearly indicated how important such development is for the establishment of structure of stability, that is, again, the precondition for the construction of sustainable knowledge society. The goal and the purpose of this program being the knowledge based society as the guarantee of the economic and every other aspect of progress in the environment of global security and coexistence.

IRMO Project Collaborators:

    • Damir Demonja, PhD
    • Ana-Maria Boromisa, PhD
    • Iva Kornfein

External Collaborators:

    • Ivo Šlaus, PhD (Croatia)
    • Vlatko Cvrtila, PhD  (Croatia)
    • Ivo Samson, PhD (Slovakia)
    • Plamen Pantev, PhD (Bulgaria)

Project Background and Hypothesis

The globalization can, more and more, be set as a model of development that does not represent a choice, but a contemporary reality of international relations that is rapidly transforming the international security environment. Everything is becoming more interdependent and connected, local conflicts on distant parts of the globe are not as „isolated” by geographical distance, whereas the economic crises and their negative effects can no more be retained inside a state or some other borders. In such a world, information, technologies, ideologies, goods, money, and epidemics, as well as weapons of mass destruction, are rapidly circling the globe and often provoking serious problems and threats, as to the state and regional security, so as to the security of the world. In such mobile and correlated global surroundings, the concept of security is being continuously revised and expanded so that the traditional territorial concept of defence has become almost completely useless. The new understanding of security includes internal political and social stability of the state, effectiveness and transparency of democratic institutions of power, quality and sustainability of its economic development, as well as the access of its citizens to the educational system. Altogether, this is what is called good governance. Taking into account the relations of a particular country towards international surroundings, the capacities tied to the ability and desire to participate in peace missions, regional armament control systems, clearing of mines as well as in the PfP (Partnership for Peace) and MAP (Membership Action Plan) activities are being evaluated. According to the cited general criteria, the security and defence community are being transformed into the component of democratic knowledge based society. In the process of evolution of society into the knowledge based society, the operation of democratic institutions and the rule of law have become the main prerequisites of internal and external security, as well as the economic development. Consequently, the ability to combat against various forms of security threats, such as terrorism, organized crime, illegal trafficking in people and drugs, as well as weapons of mass destruction, are also inseparable from the process of democracy building and the rule of law. The expansion of realization of the abovementioned fact is developing the awareness on the close connection between security and democracy, so that in this context the principle of indivisible, co-operative security is becoming prominent. The key purpose of such a society, among other things, is the assurance of sustainable economic development, followed by the increase in the number of workplaces and social cohesion that are inseparable from the maintenance of strategic global security in the new interdependent and multicultural world. On the other hand, it is even difficult to imagine the economic development accompanied by the advancement of population standard in an insecure environment, where components, such as foreign investments, production and trade are absent. That is exactly why the security accomplished by the establishment of knowledge based society is of crucial importance, especially in the turbulent region like South-East Europe, and the country destroyed in the course of war, like Croatia. It is necessary to evaluate the mechanism of influence of security upon investment promotion, by way of risk reductions in business operations, increase in credit rating and influence onto the efficiency of investments in the military-security sector. The importance of security for individual sectors (tourism, other services, military industry) shall be explored. The evaluation of the connection between national security and antiterrorist policy onto tourism is extremely important and straightforward. It is necessary to explore the mechanisms of operation and the intensity of influence. Furthermore, it is necessary to evaluate the direct influences of investments into security on the military industry, as well as indirect impacts on the basis of demand for products and services of other service branches. An evaluation of influences of the development of military industry upon the elevation to national technological level also represents a crucial element.

Research Procedures and Plan

Aside from the continued improvement of the theoretical and methodologically-analytical approach, the plan includes several interconnected stages. The first shall include detailed development of the project with a clear definition of specific issues tied to the research and anticipated results, as well as the participation in the communication strategy, with the implementation of School of Journalism for the monitoring of process of Croatian integration into the EU and NATO, as part of the promotional campaign and education for the purpose of applying NATO standards and criteria. The comparative analysis of the new NATO member states (former transitional countries like Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland – first wave of post-Cold-War enlargement, and Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia – second wave) will be conducted. The second part shall focus on the security part of the project in which the new paradigm of international relations, as well as the role of NATO in that context, its abilities to face new global unconventional threats, compatibility of NATO and EU criteria and standards, as well as the role and the position of Croatia in the “eastern enlargement” of the mentioned military-political alliance, will be analyzed in detail. The third part shall focus on the economic part of the project in which specific costs and benefits of inclusion into contemporary security arrangements, such as costs and benefits of modernization, reforms, adjustment to the new security doctrine, education and interoperability, will be analyzed. Consequently, costs of construction of the new structures of national security (its influence on the national budget and GDP), as well as the impact of increase of security onto social and economic movements (increase of FDI-Foreign Direct Investments, influence on the scientific and technology sector, etc.), shall be analyzed. Both the security and economic part of the project will take into consideration the comparative experiences of the former countries in transition that recently became the NATO member states. The fourth part will include sublimation and evaluation of research results from the previous parts of the project, as well as their presentation at an international conference. Considering the dynamics of the integration process development, it is possible to expect that, after the expiration of the first four years of research, it shall be necessary to carry out the evaluation of achievements (and the mid-term review of the project), and possibly an adjustment of final activities in the project. During the fifth year of research, on the basis of aforementioned results, the experiences and perspectives of mission ALTHEA in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as the first EU military mission that replaced the NATO one, but still working in close co-operation with it, will be analysed. This kind of co-operation represents a precondition for establishment of the zone of collective security in the South-East Europe, which implicitly includes active role of Croatia as a most stable country in the region. Its role will be even more important when it becomes the full-fledged member of NATO, and therefore this analysis of costs and benefits of such an involvement will be reliable indicator of its readiness to cope with economic, security and political implications of its role in the NATO’s collective security system.The research shall serve as a concrete scientifically founded support for decision making on governmental policies, concerning the construction of sustainable knowledge society. Results will be presented through all forms of scientific communication, with a view to stimulating an active dialogue on particular relevant difficulties. A special purpose is to intensify the international dissemination of research results through magazines and foreign almanacs. Monographs shall be published on foreign policy and the international, especially security, position of Croatia, and the issuance of the first Croatian journal for international relations, the “Croatian International Relations Review”, with extras from the area of security, shall continue. Books, studies, recommendations, guidelines, strategic “policy and working papers” shall be published; conferences, workshops, as well as various forms of education for targeted users organized. In the area of security, as a specific result, contribution to the communication campaign for the integration of Croatia into NATO is expected. Considering the fact that the expected time for the implementation of the project is five years, the anticipated results are temporally divided in five categories.

Purpose and Aims

As well as almost all other transitional countries, Croatia has defined full NATO membership as one of the strategic goals of its foreign policy. Considering the globalization processes and the character of modern unconventional threats, it is clear that neither of the countries, especially a small country of limited defensive, economic and other capacities such as Croatia, will be able to stand up against them alone. Therefore, Croatia needs to commit to the co-operative model and look for its place within the global security framework, as for example NATO. This includes assuming certain obligations that arise from the membership within such a mechanism, and that carry certain costs. The goal of this project lies exactly in the definition of these costs that every country, as well as Croatia, must assume, and their comparison to the benefits that are expected from the participation in international security arrangements, whereby the image of general cost-effectiveness of Croatian participation within them would become apparent. The project particularly explores the perspective of relations between the development of the economy and security in South-East Europe, currently being the most turbulent area in Europe security wise, and, as such, also posing a security threat to the EU. Through this area pass many of the corridors of new unconventional threats, such as terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, illegal trafficking in drugs and people, and other, from East to the West – that is towards the EU. Croatia, as well as other countries in the region, must control this traffic, and this can only be done if the country is institutionally and democratically stable. One of the preconditions of such stability is adequate economic development, and, in such a way, it is clearly indicated how important such development is for the establishment of structure of stability, that is, again, the precondition for the construction of sustainable knowledge society. The purpose is also contained within the scientific-research support to the participants of the decision-making process in the area, whereby their efficiency and the future positioning of Croatia is significantly increased. It is apparent that the goal and the purpose of this project directly coincide with the sole concept of the program, that concept being the knowledge based society as the guarantee of the economic and every other aspect of progress in the environment of global security and coexistence.

Research Application

The Republic of Croatia is in the process of integration into the EU and joining NATO. Joining such international frameworks of collaboration demands involvement of all aspects of society, particularly the academic community. This is exactly the path on which research and its results within this project shall be implemented as scientific support on the Croatian path towards the full membership within the mentioned international organizations. Full membership in NATO has been a strategic orientation of the Republic of Croatia from time of its recognition as an independent internationally-legal entity. Lately, discussions concerning the accuracy of such orientation have become more and more frequent in the country, whereas the public support for such a strategy has been decreasing. The main purpose of this project is to present to general Croatian public the meaning of the position of NATO within the system of collective security and the new paradigm of international relations, as well as the position of the Republic of Croatia therein. In that sense, the analysis off all the aspects of costs and benefits of the Croatian membership in NATO shall be carried out, since this is also the most important topic of the ongoing discussions in the country on this issue. The additional goal of the project is also the analysis of principles of common funding, as well as their influence onto national budgets, including the budget of the Republic of Croatia. In this way, this project, as well as the whole program of which it is an integral part, can serve as one of the key promoters of a broader acceptance of the idea on the development of knowledge based society, also represent a significant support in the decision making process in the Republic of Croatia. On the basis of the results of this research, the project will propose the establishment of a special practical mechanism that would carefully examine all the aspects of the process, whether in the shape of a network, or establishing a special NATO-home, or perhaps a summer school, having the final goal to coordinate all the elements of the process and inform the public thereof.

Expected Results

Expected results of the first year of project include organising of an international conference that will actualise the mentioned topic and announce the research in the period set in this proposal. Also, each part of the project will be defined in details and the comparative analysis of the full-fledged NATO membership’s impact on the new member states will be carried out. Furthermore, we expect the implementation of the School of Journalism for the monitoring of the process of Croatian integration into the EU and NATO, which represents participation in the communication strategy, as a part of the promotional campaign and education for the application of NATO criteria and standards. As a result of the second year of project implementation, the concluding of its first part that predominantly deals with the security aspect of the topic is expected to be done, as well as organising of two seminars that should present the final results of this part of research. The expected results of the third year of project implementation include finalising of its second part that predominantly deals with the economic aspect of the topic, as well as organising of two seminars that should present the final results of this part of research. During the fourth year, the evaluation of the totality of results that includes coming out with certain conclusions and guidelines for Croatia ant the region also is expected to be done. Furthermore, by organising the international conference, the results of the entire research will be presented in the appropriate way, as well as the best patterns of their implementation will be outlined. During the fifth year of research, on the basis of aforementioned results, the experiences and perspectives of mission ALTHEA in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as the first EU military mission that replaced the NATO one, but still working in close co-operation with it, will be analysed. This kind of co-operation represents a precondition for establishment of the zone of collective security in the South-East Europe, which implicitly includes active role of Croatia as a most stable country in the region. Its role will be even more important when it becomes the full-fledged member of NATO, and therefore this analysis of costs and benefits of such an involvement will be reliable indicator of its readiness to cope with economic, security and political implications of its role in the NATO’s collective security system.

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